Chrome OS, Other Tech Stuff

Google is coming out with an operating system that will eventually challenge Windows and Snow Leopard. Chrome is differs from its competitors in a distinct way though, everything revolves around the browser - the browser is the operating system. I am not tech savvy enough to describe Chrome; however, the short video below explains it nicely:

• You can get Chrome now; however, your brain will have to be much bigger than mine to figure out how to install it (go here and here for details). I think right now it is only for netbooks. Given the complexity, I would probably just wait until it comes ready on a computer or netbook; however, I also have a Mac and am happy with its performance. If I had a PC I might try it.
• Here are 5 ways it differs from traditional operating systems. I personally like the idea of no downloads.
• Here are the 5 best and worst things about Chrome.
• This article speculates Chrome's endgame (dismantle Microsoft) and this article discusses why Chrome will fail. I don't agree with the latter big picture, but figured it was best to have both arguments. I can also see why it will have trouble in the near term.

In all likelihood Microsoft views Chrome as a threat. Their response was interesting, instead of innovating they figured a dance number in a Microsoft store was the most appropriate approach:

In all seriousness, Microsoft did just release a beta version of Office 2010. If you want to check it out, go here.

Lastly, I just got my invite and have started to play with Google Wave. If I get far enough I hope to have an informative post on it.

Green Tea Extract Follow Up

Jake had been touting these green tea extract pills to me prior to his excellent post; however, up until recently I had ignored his suggestion. This past weekend while walking through Costco I saw the pills and decided I would give them a try.

It was a great decision. I take 2 at 5:45 am and have energy by 6. I also don't have the crash. I don't know if the weight loss or other holistic benefits of the pill work, but if you want something that will give you quick energy this is a good way to go.

Note: I am a pretty wired person, so it takes very little caffeine to get me going.

China's Ghost Town

I embedded a pretty surreal video below (via various blogs) on a city in China that is empty. The government has essentially commissioned a city be built that nobody lives in. The homes, the streets, the office buildings are all empty. I don't know if this sort of thing is commonplace in China. Even if it is not, such an activity is symbolic of China's growing asset bubble. Below are reasons why this could prove to be problematic:

• Opportunity Cost - It costs billions to build cities. I don't know what the price tag was; however, it had to cost the government billions of dollars. Such money would probably be better spent on improving the social safety net.
• Capital Flight - Think of what happened here. We built a lot of houses. All seemed well as the economy grew because of the increase in housing investment. This changed once investors noticed there were too many houses. Money started flowing out of housing and prices collapsed. This is what could happen to the whole country (capital flight) if the Chinese are too far over capacity.
• Civil Unrest - This one I am unsure of; however, if workers flow off the farms into the city to labor on various projects, what happens when the work is done? Do the workers go back to the farms happy as can be? More likely, they will expect continued employment given what they thought would be a growing a economy in a fresh, new city. How the workers handle such disappointment will ultimately decide how much civil unrest there is. Furthermore, if ordinary citizens are speculating in real estate and prices crash that could also cause civil unrest.
• Logic - Does it make sense to spend money on a city nobody lives in? It doesn't pass the smell test.

If this is an isolated incident then then such a problem will probably not materialize into anything major. I have no way of knowing if this is case; however, I do believe China is currently in "asset bubble" mode, although I doubt it is as severe as empty cities arising everywhere. Empty cities and rapid rises in asset prices (note: I view such a rise as unsustainable given the long-run benefits of the current economic policies seem negligible at this point) are something investors need to watch for when putting money into China. While China will most likely prove to be a profitable investment in the long-run, short and intermediate term factors could provide much pain to investors. Keep in mind, in this case timing may be everything...

Investment Performance, In Case You Were Wondering

Think B.I.G. (Bespoke Investment Group) is a blog that provides many good graphs on investment performance. The charts below outline the performance of various asset classes:

From November 16th:

From November 10th:

From November 4th:

Also check out the best/worst stocks this earnings season and the best/worst leveraged ETFs.

TWOYP Required Listening: Coldplay "Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends"

It is truly not often, at least it shouldn't be, that one can say a piece of art, entertainment, or media is "iconic" or "classic" or even "timeless." Those adjectives are reserved for the highest quality pieces when being descriptive, and there are only a handful of things to which we can utilize these words for. In music, one would consider Pink Floyd's "Dark Side of the Moon," Led Zeppelin's "IV," The Beatles' "Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band," all the way through to Radiohead's "OK Computer" and "The Bends," Notorious B.I.G.'s "Ready to Die," Nas' "Illmatic," amongst others. In art, Andy Warhol's "Campbell's Soup" or "Marilyn Monroe" pieces, almost any of Picasso's cubism pieces, including "Guernica," Van Gogh's "Starry Night," even up to more modern artists like Jackson Pollack (paintings with no brush) and Damien Hirst. We can talk about the list for days without even grazing film, government and sports figures, but the fact remains that when someone mentions these artists' names EVERYONE knows at least one piece they've done, or their revolutionary method of doing so. Their works and inspiration are globally-recognized and unquestionably withstand the test of time.

In the last few years, probably since 2001-2003, my generation seems to have lacked an iconic piece of art because the industry has become watered-down by faux-artists looking for royalties off ringtones. The 'icons' today are only such because the media has put them on a pedestal for the wrong reasons: catchy lines, commercial success and physical attributes. I am proud to say we will be reviewing those albums which we consider 'classics,' based on their original definition provided by the likes of The Beatles, Elvis, etc. Coldplay's "Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends" is that classic album.

Arguably the world's biggest band of the moment, Coldplay has constructed a truly timeless masterpiece in Viva la Vida, giving us a glimpse of what music used to be centered upon as well as the notion that true artists do, in fact, still exist. Stripping themselves of their old habits to experiment (ex. trying to play guitar progressions backwards, recording in multiple places including churches) and working with legendary producer Brian Eno, Coldplay puts forth their best effort, by far, yet. While commercially recognized through singles "Viva la Vida" and "Lost!" (also releasing a remix featuring Jay-Z), quality was clearly not sacrificed in the process. Sweeping violins, dark followed by inviting guitar riffs, and ecstatic piano-playing echo throughout the whole album, inviting listeners through a multitude of emotions and settings. What makes this a classic? Flawless production, almost orchestra-like quality, and songs for every situation one could imagine. Not to mention, whatever your flavor or preference of music, THERE IS AT LEAST ONE song on Viva la Vida which you will appreciate. Lyrically, Viva la Vida almost takes you around the world and, at least for certain, Europe, mentioning the sights and feel of London, Rome and Paris in multiple songs; angry and violet in some, yet warm and epic in others.

I'm normally not one to make bold predictions, but I can guarantee our readers that 10 years from now people will still be listening to Viva la Vida. Like a bottle of wine, this should be enjoyed in full, and may even appreciate to your ears over time. Here's our song-by-song rating:

Life In Technicolor - 5/5
Cemeteries of London - 5/5
Lost! - 5/5
42 - 4/5
Lovers In Japan/Reign of Love - 5/5
Yes - 3/5
Viva la Vida - 5/5
Violet Hill - 5/5
Strawberry Swing - 4/5
Death and All His Friends - 5/5

-Jake

Jobs Going Forward

Posting for me has been light the last few days as I have been moving. Complicating this matter even further were the tech wizards at Time Warner incorrectly setting up our wireless internet.

Starting with the obvious, the jobs picture isn't looking good. "Official" unemployment (U3) is at 10.20% and "broader" unemployment (U6) is at 17.50%. Without getting into the details of how the unemployment sausage/hot dog is made, U6 is probably the most accurate measure as it is how unemployment feels to those on the street. You all probably didn't need me to tell you this; however, if you are anticipating employment to pick up as the economy improves you may be sadly mistaken.

As outlined by Nouriel Roubini, in the last few recessions unemployment lags overall recovery. This happened in the recessions of 1991 and 2001 and is typically referred to as a "jobless recovery". Even as the economic data continues to stabilize or improve, businesses still do not plan on hiring and are in fact still looking to cut jobs (via The Business Insider):

Such high unemployment complicates the recovery story as well. The higher the unemployment the less consumption, which could lead the economy to relapse into negative growth - the dreaded "double dip" recession. Plus, higher unemployment equals less income to pay debts, which in turn could trigger a new wave of problems for banks and cause lending to freeze again.

If you are looking for work, I would imagine getting a head hunter(s) or utilizing the endless amount of job search sites could prove beneficial. If you want to do it on your own, teaching jobs in Washington DC look like the most promising opportunity (via Infectious Greed):

Surprises and Risks Going Forward

In "The Last Crusade" when Indy goes to get the grail he comes to a canyon that appears to have no way across it. As it turns out there is a bridge that is so well camouflaged it blends in with the side of the canyon. Indy has "faith", believing such a bridge is there even though he can't see it and crosses the canyon. This reminds me of our current economic predicament- there is a low margin of error navigating across these economic waters and catastrophe more than likely awaits; however, there is a small chance we get through it, relying mostly on hope.

Anyway, there is a nice short summary of possible economic surprises and risks going forward that can be found here (via Calculated Risk, which is the best blog for housing data and very good on everything else economics). I agree with these assessments and would like to add a few others.

On the upside, a black swan (an unforeseen event) in innovation can take place, particularly in green energy. Also, aside from the fiscal stimulus (government spending), the continued monetary stimulus (money printing) and other government /FED programs may create another asset bubble. By this I mean that prices of assets (homes, stocks, commodities, etc.) continue to rise. As a result consumers feel confident again and begin to spend as their balance sheets improve (as assets rise so does net worth). The same can be true for banks, who in turn start lending again and jump start the economy into more growth (although fabricated growth that only delays the inevitable).

On the downside, the effects of commercial real estate crashing could derail any sort of recovery (see previous post with more detail here). This would weaken banks even further, which would in turn cause banks to reduce credit. Along the same lines the financial system is still very weak, interconnected, and probably prone to shocks, which could put us in the same place as last fall. Can the private sector and animal spirits pick up the government slack? Lastly, assuming we do get a recovery through asset inflation will higher energy costs (think $4 gas) derail any progress?

Those were the ones that came to the top of my head. I am sure I missed many, like Calculated Risk said.